So I decided to ride my secret time machine to 2014, when the new lines for Maryland state districts take effect. And just to keep it simple (for now), I'm going to keep my numbers to Anne Arundel County.
First, the General Assembly. Here is a map of the new districts for Delegates. Each numbered district sends one Senator and three Delegates to the General Assembly. Some districts are split. A district split 3 ways (ex. 1A, 1B, 1C) sends one Delegate from each district, but still one Senator from the combined District 1. A district split 2 ways (ex. 30A, 30B) has a situation where one of those districts will send one Delegate and the other will send one. The two districts combined will send one Senator.
Senator Jim Rosapepe (D)
Delegate Ben Barnes (D)
Delegate Barbara Frush (D)
Delegate Joseline Peña-Melnyk (D)
(College Park, Laurel, Odenton)Only 25% or so of the people in the new 21st District live in Anne Arundel County; the rest is in Prince George's. It was redrawn, I assume, to include more minority neighborhoods in the western part of the county.
District 30A - Democrats Gain 1 Delegate
Senator John Astle (D)
Delegate Michael Busch (D)
(D)
(Annapolis, Edgewater)
A spirited comeback campaign by Herb McMillan in a very good Republican year was enough to make District 30 a Two-Republican-One-Democrat (2R,1D) district in 2010. The district has been significantly redrawn to account for high population growth in the central part of the county. As a result, the 33rd District has become smaller in size, but is more densely populated. The 30th was then split into the Annapolis area (30A), and the swingy south county area that used to be in the 33rd (30B).
Annapolis is safely Democratic, so without the more conservative coastal areas that were in the old 30th, Delegate Busch (who also happens to be the Speaker of the House) can look forward to some friendly company being elected to join him in 2014. The election will likely mark the end for Republican Delegates Herb McMillan and Ron George, unless one of them moves to the 33rd and runs in the open seat there.
So who will be that "friendly company?" Virginia P. Clagett, who lost her seat to McMillan in 2010, may decide to make a comeback. There's also Josh Cohen, currently Mayor of Annapolis and a former County Councilman.
District 30B - Republicans Hold
Senator John Astle (D)
Delegate Bob Costa (R)
(Deale, Mayo, Selby-on-the-Bay, Shady Side)
Anyone who says Anne Arundel County is solidly Republican is flat-out wrong. Generally, the closer to the waterfront people live, the more conservative they tend to vote. Think East=Republican, West=Democrat. So what about the South? This area seems very independent. The presidential and senatorial races have been very close in the south, and Delegate Costa is considered a very moderate Republican (in the strain of Wayne Gilchrest). Costa was also one of only two Republicans to vote for equal marriage for gay couples. Costa will likely get a primary challenge from the right wing, but will likely pull out the win. If Costa happens to lose the primary, this seat might swing to the Democrats.
District 31A - Democrats Gain 1 Delegate
Senator Brian Simonaire (R)
(D)
(Glen Burnie)
Remember what I said about Republicans in Anne Arundel County? Here's where they are - the 31st District is, without question, their stronghold. An increase in ethnic minority population in the northern part of the county is what I suspect motivated the Assembly to split the district. Let's face it, Glen Burnie has a completely different feel from Pasadena. District 31A is comprised of districts that voted for Mikulski in 2010 by almost 60%.
The district shifting from 3R to 2R,1D means that one Republican has to go. And there's only one Republican Delegate from Glen Burnie ... the anti-gay crusader and general embarrassment to the Republican Party, Don Dwyer.
I honestly couldn't guess who the Democrats will put forward in 2014 to oppose Dwyer in 31A. A man named Robert L. Eckert ran for the Assembly in 2010 from Glen Burnie, perhaps he will run again. Of note is that in the 2010 Democratic primary, Eckert came in first place.
District 31B - Republicans Hold
Senator Brian Simonaire (R)
Delegate Nic Kipke (R)
(R)
(Pasadena)
Pasadena is packed with Republicans and conservative-leaning independents. District 31B also includes Gibson Island, so we're talking serious 1%-ers. Senator Simonaire and Delegate Kipke are locks to win re-election. The second Delegate, Don Dwyer, was drawn into 31A and will probably lose as he won't have the Pasadena choir to preach his anti-gay rhetoric to. The third Delegate, Steve Schuh, has practically already launched his 2014 campaign for County Executive, raising over $200,000 already.
Schuh's exit leaves a vacancy that I can only see being filled by one of two people. First, Delegate Dwyer could move a little bit to the east and be in 31B. If he doesn't, the name Jim Braswell comes to mind. Braswell is a young lawyer who decided to run for County Council in 2010, but abruptly switched to the House of Delegates. You can tell because some of the pages on his site have a "Braswell - County Council" banner while others say "House of Delegates." Regardless of what he was running for, he came in fourth place (out of four) in the 2010 Republican primary.
District 32 - Democrats Hold
Senator Ed DeGrange (D)
Delegate Pam Beidle (D)
Delegate Mary Ann Love (D)
Delegate Ted Sophocleus (D)
(Hanover, Linthicum, Odenton, Severn)
This north county district was one of the fastest-growing in the state. First, the continuing effects of BRAC means that more soldiers have been transferred to Fort Meade and finding homes in Odenton and Severn. Second, the Arundel Mills Mall and Maryland Live! Casino have transformed Hanover from a sleepy airport town into a congested modern suburban town. Therefore, the geographic area that the 32nd covers had to shrink considerably so they'd have equal population with the rest of the districts. It's tough to say whether the new district will be more or less Democratic, since much of the population is new to the area. The 2010 returns showed high vote counts for both sides in the Hanover precincts, and the Democratic-leaning town of Odenton has been largely removed from the district; only Seven Oaks and northern communities west of Rt. 170 remain in the 32nd.
One thing is certain. This district won't be so much less Democratic as to give the Republicans a pickup opportunity.
District 33 - Republicans Hold
Senator Ed Reilly (R)
Delegate Tony McConkey (R)
Delegate Cathy Vitale (R)
(R)
(Arnold, Crofton, Crownsville, Gambrills, Millersville, Severna Park)
This is another district that is experiencing rapid growth, specifically in the ever-changing town of Crofton. What began as a tucked-away, gated community in rural Anne Arundel County has exploded in the last 15 years, adding two major town centers and countless minor ones, a movie theater, and two elementary schools (Nantucket and the proposed Two Rivers school). Despite the diversification of Crofton, the remainder of the district is solidly Republican. The population growth has caused the 33rd District to contract in size, giving up the entire south county to 30B. Because of this, the Republicans do not technically pick up a new seat even though the 33rd is a 3-member district now: 33A was James King and Tony McConkey, and 33B was Bob Costa. King ran for State Senate in the Republican primary against Reilly in 2010 (without success, obviously) and may attempt a comeback in 2014. Another possibility for the third seat is perennial Republican candidate Sid Saab, who has been running for assorted offices since 2006 but has yet to see a general election victory.
Thus concludes the commentary on the Anne Arundel state level districts. I shall do county-level offices another time, primarily because my fingers hurt.
All maps are found at the Maryland Department of Planning site at http://planning.maryland.gov/redistricting/2010/legiDist.shtml
